The data for Gaboxadol may put you to sleep faster than the pill.

That’s how David Risinger of Merrill Lynch reacts in his investor note this morning. The key reason is the pill doesn’t fare well against the competition, which is already plentiful and gets more crowded next year generic Ambien is due. He adds that Peter Kim, Merck’s chief scientist, recently indicated Gaboxadol may be scheduled as a controlled substance.

A recent abstract indicates a 15mg pill, the largest dose tested, helped patients shave a placebo-adjusted 10 minutes off the time needed to get to sleep and increased total sleep time by 20 minutes. A six-month study of chronic insomniacs who were given a 3mg Lunesta pill, however, shaved 16 minutes off time needed to begin sleep and they slept an extra 39 minutes.

Assuming Merck gets to market this pill next year, Risinger doesn’t look for 2008 sales to exceed $30 million, and only reach $340 million in 2012. This isn’t all that much when recalling Lunesta is forecast to hit $1.3 billion in 2011.

Not the sort of projection to wake up investors, is it?

[tags]Ambien, Lunesta, Merck, Sleeping Pills[/tags]