Last March, Amgen stunned investors by halting a trial that showed its Vectivix colorectal cancer med didn’t increase chances of survival. Yesterday, more trial data was disclosed - and things look worse than before, writes Jim Reddoch, an analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey, in an investor note this morning.

The new label says the incidence of Grade 4 pulmonary embolism was 6 percent (vs. 3 percent in non-Vectibix patients), and this was higher than the 4 percent vs. 2 percent discussed in the March 22 press release. And Vectibix doubled or tripled the risk of developing infections, diarrhea and dehydration.

So ImClone’s Erbitux stands to gain competitively, Reddoch notes. And he concludes quite correctly that Vectibix sales are at risk. “Our $305 million estimate for Vectibix sales for 2007 is probably unachievable, as is our peak sales estimate of $752 million in 2012…Weak Vectibix demand is damaging to an oncology franchise that rewards high-volume ordering from cancer clinics.”

Nonetheless, Amgen ceo Kevin Sharer is on record as saying there’s no crisis.