Eager to gain insight into prescribing trends, another Wall Street analyst confers with docs for a look at the crystal ball. This time around, Ian Sanderson of Cowen & Co. asks three endocrinologists for their diabetes picks in advance of the American Diabetes Association meeting that begins on Friday in Chicago. Given controversy over Avandia, Merck’s new Januvia pill wins - by default.

Sanderson writes in an investor notes this morning that “none of the endocrinologists on our call are impressed by Januvia’s efficacy. Nonetheless, they believe that Januvia will garner broad primary care use due to three things: aggressive marketing support; a clean side-effect profile, and concerns about the safety profile of the Avandia class of drugs, known as TZDs…”

A key issue: uncertainty surrounding a similar drug from Novartis, which is being delayed by safety concerns. “While Januvia’s safety profile has been clean thus far, one of the clinicians opined that longer-term issues may still arise once Januvia is used in a broader patient population. The physicians agreed they would like to see two-year safety data in a significant number of type 2 diabetics before drawing any conclusions about Januvia’s longer-term safety profile.”