A bit of good news for Amgen? That would be a switch. In an investor note this morning, Jim Reddoch, biotech analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey, writes that his Washington colleagues hear that bundling of reimbursement for EPO meds - such as Amgen’s Aranesp and Epogen - into a single payment for the treatment of dialysis patients will be part of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program legislation. And this would likely be introduced in the House in mid-July.

The estimated savings to Medicare from this reimbursement change is $1 billion over five years, which is less than previous estimates that went as high as $5 billion over five years. Moreover, Reddoch writes, much of the savings will likely come out of the profits dialysis providers make by administering EPO, and therefore isn’t a direct hit to the drugmakers. This could be legislated directly, by reducing the Average Sales Price, or ASP +6 percent to ASP + 1 percent or 2 percent for dialysis providers.

If this bill makes it into law, $200 million per year in lost EPO sales is the worst case scenario for Amgen, he forecasts, adding that the actual trickle-down impact on Amgen’s Epogen sales will be considerably less, possibly less than $100 million per year. In this case, bundling would only result in a reduction of 4 percent or less of EPO sales, based on his 2008 estimates.

“We believe this represents a much less severe reduction to EPO sales than has been expected by investors, making the proposed legislation a relative positive for Amgen,” Reddoch concludes.

This would, indeed, be a positive for Amgen ceo Kevin Sharer, who has maintained for months that his company doesn’t face a crisis.