The Generic ‘Tidal Wave’ Keeps On Coming

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generic-graphic.jpgThere’s nothing new about the rising use of generics. Nonetheless, The New York Times this morning takes stock of the ongoing trend with a few updated comments concerning what this is doing to the profit picture at some big drugmakers. A few key take-away messages: the rising use of generics should lower drug price inflation over the next few years; pharma is enduring an innovation drought, and the continuing expiration of patents on big sellers means the trend will continue. Here are a few quotes from the story….

- “There’s a tidal wave of generic drugs, and we are just in the beginning of the tidal wave,” says Laizer Kornwasser, an executive for Medco Health Solutions, the big pharmacy benefits manager.

- The generic trend is “good for everybody but the branded pharmaceutical companies,” says Ronny Gal, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein who tracks generic makers like Teva, Barr and Mylan Labs, and predicts 10 percent to 13 percent annual profit growth in the industry by 2010.

- “It’s much better than it was in the ’90s, before these drugs started going generic,” says Steve Miller, chief medical officer for Express Scripts, another pharmacy benefit manager, noting that generics should keep drug price inflation in the single digits for the next several years. “The drug trend was always double digit.”

- “At the end of the day, it’s basically a failure of innovation,” says Richard Evans of Avos Life Sciences, a research and consulting firm for the drug industry.

- “I don’t think we would support the contention that there’s a lull,” said Caroline Loew, senior vice president for scientific and regulatory affairs at Phrma, the trade group.

Thanks to The New York Times for the chart.

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