That’s the slowest pace since 1962 and compares with more than 8 percent in 2006, according to the latest figures from IMS Health. Total US prescription sales reached $286.5 billion, with slower sales growth resulting from loss of exclusivity of branded medicines, fewer new product approvals, the levelling of year-over-year growth from the Medicare Part D program, and the impact of safety issues, the research firm reports.

Total US dispensed prescription volume grew at a 2.8 percent pace, compared with 4.6 percent in 2006, with antidepressants ranked as the leading therapy class. Overall, the top five therapeutic categories - antidepressants, cholesterol, codeine & combination pain medications, ace inhibitors and beta blockers - continued to lead in terms of prescription utilization, IMS notes. There was also a continuing shift toward biotech and specialist-driven therapies, which grew at a 9 percent and 10 percent pace, respectively. Among the leading therapy classes, oncology drugs grew 14 percent.

With prescription sales of $18.4 billion, choletsterol meds continued to be the largest therapy class in the US,despite a 15.4 percent year-over-year sales decline. Proton pump inhibitors ranked second, with prescription sales of $14.1 billion and growth of 2.8 percent. Antipsychotics replaced antidepressants as the third-largest therapeutic class in 2007, with prescription sales growth of 12.1 percent to $13.1 billion.

“The US pharmaceutical market has entered a new era — one characterized by more modest growth due to the continuing impact of new generics products, fewer and more narrowly indicated novel medications, and closer scrutiny of safety issues,” says IMS’s Murray Aitken, a senior vp, in a statement.

According to IMS, the primary factors contributing to the 2007 market slowdown:

Loss of exclusivity – Branded drugs representing $17 billion in sales lost exclusivity in 2007, helping to drive prescription volume growth of 10 percent for unbranded generics. In 2007, generics continued to replace branded prescriptions in the major therapeutic classes, increasing their share of total dispensed prescriptions to 67.3 percent;

Uptake of new products – Uptake of new, innovative meds represented just $441 million of total sales in 2007, reflecting both the fewest new product launches in the past three decades and slower adoption by physicians of these products;

Medicare Part D contribution – Prescriptions dispensed through the Medicare Part D program accounted for 19 percent of retail scrips at the end of last year, a modest increase over 2006, and reflective of a maturing program. Today, 65 percent of US citizens age 65 and older are enrolled in the Medicare Part D program.;

Safety issues – Sales growth in 2007 also was affected by a significant number of Black Box warnings and product withdrawals, as well as safety concerns raised by the FDA for products in the erythropoietins, diabetes and antidepressant therapy classes. Safety issues contributed to significantly lower-than-expected sales for products accounting for approximately 10 percent of the total prescription market.

And your 2008 outlook…..The expected introduction of new, novel biologics and vaccines, as well as the launch of five to eight new products with potential global blockbuster status, will help offset the impact of lower generics pricing, according to the IMS forecasters. At the same there, there willl be an additional $13 billion in branded products that are likely to be exposed to generics this year.

In the US, IMS expects compound annual pharmaceutical sales growth through 2012 of 3 percent to 6 percent. Dynamics that will shape the market during the next five years include the continued loss of exclusivity in major therapy areas, new specialist-driven products, greater levels of therapeutic substitution, along with greater awareness and focus on safety issues.

“We will see additional lower-cost treatment options for many patients, while new and innovative therapies are delivered to specific patient groups, such as those suffering with cancer. Safety issues will be closely monitored and are likely to bring added caution to the market over the next several years,” says Aiken.

Like charts? Take a look…

Top companies by US sales;
Channel distribution by US sales;