Amylin Stock Is Pummeled At Diabetes Meeting
3 CommentsBy Ed Silverman // June 9th, 2008 // 4:17 pm
There was an 8 percent drop on Friday after Novo Nordisk presented data showing its once-a-day experimental med outperformed Amylin’s twice-a-day, Byetta flagship. Now, Amylin sunk another 10 percent after Roche released data at the American Diabetes Association meeting that poses yet another threat to both Byetta and a longer-lasting, follow-up drug.
Both the Novo and Roche drugs are “viable” candidates, according to Cowen analyst Phil Nadeau, the Associated Press writes. As a result, competition will increase in the GLP-1 class of diabetes meds that stimulate the release of insulin only when glucose levels become too high. They also lead to modest weight loss, which is seen as an advantage over drugs.
But Jim Birchenough of Friedman Billings Ramsey issued an investor note in which he wrote that “real world” data showed Byetta is not quite as effective as it appeared in clinical trials, and the data suggests the drug’s weight loss and blood sugar control benefits fade over time, the AP writes. This doesn’t bode well for Lilly, either, since the drugmaker partnered with Amylin to market the drug.
Scott
Let us not forget, these are the same brilliant analysts who once forecast that Pfizer’s Exubera would be a $1 billion blockbuster. Let’s look at what Novo Nordisk’s carefully-timed press release actually said: liraglutide was superior in controlling blood sugar in patients with type 2 diabetes according to a small clinical trial comparing itself to to Eli Lilly and Co’s and Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc’s first-on-the-market drug in the same category Byetta (exenatide). Notably, the company reports that in a 26-week head-to-head trial involving a mere 464 people, the reductions in HbA1c was 1.1% vs. 0.8% for Byetta. The company made special note that this was a “statistically significant” reduction.
This was a relatively small study of less than 500 people observed for a relatively short period of time — a little over 6 months. Whenever you deal with sample sizes that small, the mathematics may indeed indicate that a finding is “statistically significant,” but let us not forget just how much that difference actually is: 0.2% — the practical impact of a difference of that size that while it may be statistically significant based on a tiny sample of less than 500 people, but is hardly enough to compel someone to even bother switching brands, let alone adjust to a new medication unless there is a financial incentive for them to do so. We should keep in mind what’s going on here: Novo’s drug is a “me-too” drug that is several years late to the market, so its obvious they are working hard to create a buzz about the product, but its by no means a guaranteed blockbuster.
Lehman
Jim Birchenough is from FBR? I thought he was at Lehman still?
william t beyha
dr. denise l faustman can cure diabetes and explain the mechanisms behind autoimmune diseases and the danger of present drugs administered for same
see pubmed.org faustman dl
and faustmanlab.org
amylin is slow