The Generic Pharmaceutical Association will, some time in the not-to-distant future, issue an analysis showing that the CBO significantly underestimates the savings to the Federal Budget.

BIO will, some time in the not-to-distant future, issue an analysis showing that the CBO significantly over-estimates the savings to the Federal Budget and provides a detailed criticism of the assumptions, and raises valid and invalid issues around product quality and safety and effectiveness (some of which apply to their own products currently).

The legislation takes forever to get passed (or implemented) because FDA cannot adequately police current manufacturing and product quality at sites around the world (see Baxter and Heparin). This scares Congress. A high profile hollywood movie (starring Brad Pitt, Alan Alda, and Kevin Spacey) comes out in 2009 or 2010 showing how a big evil pharmaceutical company intentionally tainted a drug made in China, India, or the some island in the Pacific in order to scare Congress from passing biogenerics legislation.

At some point we get, inevitably, biogenerics, but generic companies charge far higher than expected prices (though lower than branded prices). Some people win, some people lose. Congress continues to accept campaign contributions from generic and branded drug and biotech manufacturers. The high profile hollywood movie starring Brad Pitt, Alan Alda, and Kevin Spacey becomes available for $3.99 on the checkout stands at the grocery store next to People Magazine, Chicklets and M&Ms.

A-rod hits 800 home runs, the Cubs still can’t win the World Series, and Keith Richards lives on and on and on with a cigarette in one hand and a whiskey in the other.