The Vytorin Limbo: Prescriptions Decline Again
1 CommentBy Ed Silverman // December 18th, 2008 // 11:36 am
After a brief pause in which prescriptions for the controversial cholesterol pill seemed to level off, the downward momentum has resumed. The latest monthly data shows prescriptions fell by a notable 10 percent in November, reflecting ongoing debate over safety and effectiveness as pointed up in a couple of well-publicized clinical trials this past year. By contrast, the overall market for prescriptions for cholesterol meds dropped by 6.7 percent.
Meanwhile, Vytorin’s share of the overall cholesterol market inched down a little more, reaching 5.6 percent compared with 5.8 in October, according to a Schering-Plough filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Back in January, before the controversy over the Enhance trial exploded, Vytorin’s share of the overall cholesterol market stood at 9 percent.
Meanwhile, scrips for Zetia - which is combined with Merck’s Zocor to form Vytorin - dropped 8.7 percent last month. The drugmakers’ combined cholesterol ‘franchise,’ which amounted to 15.2 percent of the cholesterol market in January, 12.1 percent in June and 10.8 percent in September, slid to 10.3 percent last month. Look for Vytorin scrips to decline still more next year due to formulary changes by insurers.
UPDATE: Credit Suisse analyst Catherine Arnold has this to say in an investor note: “Based on the results of our proprietary cholesterol market survey, monthly drops in the range of 0.20 percent are to be expected for the next several months. We modified our cholesterol market forecast when we published the survey results and the November prescription data is in-line with our expectations…The prescription volume for Vytorin and Zetia (as well the other major drugs in the market) was down in November, but November has historically had lower volumes than October because it is a shorter month and because of the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday.”
Condor
A reaction to the Credit Suisse November data “explanation” — quoting AP wires, tonight:
“. . . .under many prescription plans, people could get Zetia and generic Zocor — Vytorin’s two components — for a significantly lower co-pay than just Vytorin.
Barclays Capital analyst Tony Butler said the overall drop in cholesterol drug sales likely is because late in the year people getting prescriptions through Medicare often hit the so-called “donut hole,” where their out-of-pocket costs jump dramatically, so they may delay refills or split pills.
He said some commercial insurers are moving Vytorin and possibly Zetia to nonpreferred “tiers” with higher copays. And family doctors, who write most cholesterol drug prescriptions, now have their heads “spinning around side effects and costs and whether lower cholesterol (goal) numbers are really that important,” he said.
“We’re convinced that the cheaper option is the option being used,” Butler said. . . .”
http://shearlingsplowed.blogspot.com/2008/12/impertinent-question-department-when-is.html
I cannot understand, given today’s unwelcome news that Vyotrin/Zetia continued to swoon, and swoon badly, in November 2008 — despite Mr. Hassan’s predictions to the contrary on November 24, 2008 — how last week’s $500,000 cash payout to GC Sabatino can be squared with the April 2008 much-vaunted Schering proxy-statement promises.
To be clear, the cash payout to Mr. Sabatino is lawful — it is just a very cynical way to do business.
Cash — without any earnout, is simply not paying for improved shareholder returns. They (shareholders) simply have had none, of late. So, niether should the two Toms — Sabatino and Koestler, in my view.