And The World’s Largest Drug Maker Will Be…
6 CommentsBy Ed Silverman // November 2nd, 2011 // 6:52 am
Pretty soon, it will no longer be Pfizer. Instead, Sanofi is expected to become the No. 1 drugmaker next year and stay on top until at least 2016, by which time Pfizer will slide to third place, behind Novartis, according to the latest calculation by EvaluatePharma. The fall from grace is, of course, largely attributed to the patent expiration for the Lipitor cholesterol pill and the subsequent loss of revenue.
Meanwhile, Sanofi has climbed the ranks thanks to acquistions, notably the recent purchase of Genzyme, troubled as the biotech may be with ongoing production problems. The deal added meds that should boost sales to help offset the loss of revenues from the Plavix bloodthinner, which loses US patent protection next year, and ongoing generic erosion of Lovenox and Taxotere, the consulting firm writes (you can read the rest of the analysis here).
World’s Top 15 Drugmakers by 2016
Market Rank
Sanofi
Novartis
Pfizer
Glaxo
Roche
Merck
Johnson & Johnson
AstraZeneca
Teva
Abbott
Bayer
Takeda
Bristol-Myers
Novo
Eli Lilly
Condor
It is also worthy of particular note that Merck will return to the global pharma second tier (i.e., out of the top five) by 2014, as the ascendency of the European-makers eclipses even mighty Pfizer, in the same time-frame.
Of course, worldwide revenue (the measure used by these analysts) is not the same as per-share profitability (EPS) — especially when coupled to dividended returns on investment (recall here that the bust-up paid a cash $12 per share dividend to Schering-Plough’s badly mangled, and long-suffering institutional shareholders).
So, at some point I’ll likely run the numbers using EPS, plus cash and in-kind dividends, as a measure of which pharma concerns will be the highest returners, through 2016. That will be interesting, and I’ll link it here, when I do.
Even so, if this analysis pans out (Sanofi goes to No. 1, Pfizer to No. 3, by 2013, and GSK and Roche leapfrog Merck as well, by 2016), Merck will be again returned to the No. 6 or No. 7 slot it held, prior to the 2008-2009 transactions in which the bust-up of Schering-Plough was engineered. Wild.
Proof, I guess, that karma is shaped like a wheel — it always comes back ’round. . . .
Namaste, and great stuff Ed!
IndustryOutsider
You’ve listed 14 companies above. From the article:
1. Sanofi
2. Novartis
3. Pfizer
4. GlaxoSmithKline
5. Roche
6. Merck & Co
7. Johnson & Johnson
8. AstraZeneca
9. Teva
10. Abbott Laboratories
11. Bayer
12. Takeda
13. BMS
14. Novo Nordisk
15. Eli Lilly
Ed Silverman
Hi Industry Outsider,
Thanks for the note and for pointing that out. I guess was I typing too fast for my own good. But I’ve gone back and made the addition. The last thing I would want to do is overlook Johnson & Johnson. It’s much too interesting a company.
Regards
ed
IndustryOutsider
No worries Ed - keep up the good work!
The Monk
Why are my Sanofi options still worthless?
Observer
@Monk - Because at the moment, it would appear that many at sanofi “have no good options” - Therefore why should you expect differrent?
Apologies for the pun/ attmept at humor …